What is the equation of Bihar Assembly?
The total number of MLAs in Bihar Assembly is 243. RJD had emerged as the largest party in the 2020 elections. The party had won 75 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party had won 74 seats. The alliance of BJP, JDU, HAM, and VIP had won 125 seats. BSP, LJP and Independent had won one seat each. The alliance of RJD, Congress and Left parties had won 110 seats. AIMIM was successful on 5 seats.
However, later three out of four VIP MLAs joined BJP and after the death of one MLA, RJD won that seat. Similarly, 4 out of 5 AIMIM MLAs joined RJD. LJP, BSP and independent MLAs joined JDU.
RJD's attempt to reach the magical figure
Amid speculations of Nitish Kumar breaking ties with RJD, RJD has started efforts to recruit 8 more MLAs to reach the magical figure of 122. If the seats of RJD+Congress+Left are combined then the number becomes 79+19+16 i.e. 114. It is clear that there is a shortage of 8 MLAs for majority. Lalu camp is busy in wooing these 8 MLAs. At the same time, Nitish Kumar is holding a meeting with prominent leaders of JDU. Akhtar Ul Iman, the only remaining MLA of AIMIM, has also been in RJD in the past. In such a situation, there is a possibility that RJD may get their support if needed. In such a situation, RJD needs only 7 MLAs to form the government.
RJD speaker in the assembly
Awadh Bihari Choudhary of RJD is the speaker in Bihar Assembly. In such a situation, there seems to be a possibility for RJD in the assembly. In many states including Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the Speaker has indirectly benefited the ruling party by taking a lot of time in taking decisions regarding legislature.
There was news of some JDU MLAs holding a separate meeting.
Recently, before Lalan Singh stepped down from the post of JDU President, it was reported in the media that about 1 dozen JDU MLAs had held a separate meeting. And these MLAs are in touch with RJD chief Lalu Prasad. Among these MLAs, there were some MLAs who belonged to Lalu Prasad's Yadav caste and had previously been in RJD.
Lalu can also apply Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka model
In the situation of not having the required number of MLAs to break the party in the Assembly, Lalu Prasad can apply BJP's model to BJP and JDU. Just as BJP, during the last tenure in Karnataka and later in Madhya Pradesh, had reduced the majority figures in the Assembly by forcing Congress MLAs to resign from their posts and formed its own government. Similarly, Lalu Yadav can also put this option before JDU MLAs.
What is the challenge before Lalu Prasad?
If there is any weak link in Lalu Prasad's strategy then it is the Congress Party. Congress has 19 MLAs and many times the possibility has been raised that those MLAs are in contact with JDU leader Nitish Kumar. JDU's Ashok Chaudhary has previously been the state president of Congress and he also has good relations with Congress MLAs. In recent times, Ashok Chaudhary is considered very close to Nitish Kumar. In such a situation, the biggest threat to Lalu Prasad's campaign is from Congress MLAs.
What option does BJP have?
BJP and Nitish Kumar can end all the efforts of Lalu Prasad in one stroke. If Nitish Kumar dissolves the Bihar Assembly, then Lalu Prasad or any party will not be in a position to form the government. However, according to reports about 2 years ago, even BJP MLAs are not ready to go to the assembly elections.
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