The ups and downs kept happening like this
In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, TMC had won only 1 seat in West Bengal. Whereas BJP did not win even a single seat in this election. Congress had won 6 and CPM had won 26 Lok Sabha seats. But the figures changed to a great extent in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. TMC won 19 Lok Sabha seats in this election. BJP had to be satisfied with 1 seat. Congress kept its position as it was and could win only 6 seats. Whereas CPM, which had won 26 seats in the last elections, could win only 9 seats.
This is how BJP grew
TMC's dominance further increased in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and it won 34 seats. Whereas BJP managed to win 2 seats. Congress also suffered losses due to TMC's storm and was reduced to 4 seats. At the same time, CPM, which had won the most seats in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, came at par with the BJP and could win only two seats. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections were no less than a nightmare for Congress and CPM. CPM could not win even a single seat in this election. Whereas Congress was reduced to just 2 seats. TMC also suffered loss in this election and could win only 22 seats instead of 34 seats it had won in the last election. Whereas BJP managed to win 18 Lok Sabha seats under the leadership of Narendra Modi.
Congress and Left suffered losses
The question is where did the Left and Congress voters go? According to CSDS Lokniti data, 39 per cent of the Left's traditional voters went to BJP, 31 per cent to TMC and only 30 per cent remained with it. If we talk about the traditional voters of Congress, then 32 percent went to BJP, 20 percent to TMC and 4 percent to the Left. Congress was left with only 32 percent traditional voters.
Polarization increased rapidly
According to the data of CSDS Lokniti, if we look at the vote percentage of 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it will be known that polarization is increasing in West Bengal. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 21 percent Hindus voted for BJP and only 2 percent by Muslims. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP got 47 percent votes of Hindus. Whereas Muslims got 4 percent votes. 40 percent Hindus voted for TMC in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. TMC also got 40 percent votes of Muslims. But in the 2019 elections, TMC got only 32 percent votes of Hindus but got a total of 70 percent votes of Muslims.
Will women votes shift due to Sandeshkhali scandal?
According to Axis My India data, 44 percent women voted for TMC in 2019. Whereas male voters remained only 42 percent. In 2019, BJP got 40 percent votes of women voters and 40 percent votes of male voters. Congress, Left and others got the remaining votes. Obviously, women's vote is very important for TMC and if this vote bank wavers even a little because of Sandeshkhali, it will suffer a lot.
If TMC and Congress had fought together
If TMC and Congress had fought together in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, they would have won a total of 24 seats. Whereas BJP would still have won 18 seats. It has been estimated for 2024 that if Congress and TMC had fought together, they could have won 30 seats. Whereas BJP had to be satisfied with only 12 seats.
What votes will CAA bring?
Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari said that politics in Bengal has traditionally been of Congress and CPM. Polarization has had an impact in the last two elections because there is not much caste politics in Bengal. There is socio economic class based politics. There is politics of poor and rich. The Muslim population there is 30 percent. This is double the Muslim population of India. BJP has succeeded in making Hindu vs Muslim. Hindu votes of Congress and Left have also been transferred to BJP. At the same time, their Muslim votes were transferred to TMC. Now after CAA, it has to be seen what its effect is.
BJP is increasing its penetration
Political analyst Manisha Priyam said that although there is no caste politics in West Bengal, yet since the last elections, BJP has attracted some major social classes towards itself. Like the Prime Minister himself went to the temple of Matua Maa and tried to attract this class towards himself. Apart from this, BJP has also won the tribals on its side. At the same time, Mamata Banerjee still has a good hold on women voters. Besides, his public welfare schemes also have an impact on a large section of society. CPM's votes also went towards TMC but BJP is challenging TMC in every category of votes.
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